New Government in Egypt, New Policy on Gaza?
- Dalia Ziada
- Jul 10, 2024
- 3 min read
The recent ministerial cabinet reshuffle in Egypt holds great promise for easing strained ties with Israel over the war in Gaza.
As Egyptian President El-Sisi swore in the new ministers on July 3, the majority of Egyptians were struggling with hours-long power cuts, skyrocketing prices of basic commodities, and short supplies of medications. For months, the core inflation rate in Egypt exceeded 30% after hitting a record 38% in September.
The unprecedented economic crisis in Egypt was sparked by a severe scarcity of US dollars and magnified by the escalating regional instability on all of Egypt’s land borders, including the war in Gaza.
Egypt relies on Israeli natural gas to satisfy its huge domestic energy demand and also profits from the liquefication and exportation of Israeli and Egyptian gas to Europe. In 2023, Egypt's economy suffered a $6 billion loss in prospective revenues due to a sharp decline in LNG exports. In June, Egyptian Prime Minister Mustafa Madbouly hinted that the daily blackouts are resulting from the shortage of natural gas supplies from Israel, which he nicknamed “a neighboring country.”
President El-Sisi's governing strategy involves forming executive technocrat-led governments with restricted decision-making powers. The key pillars of his administration - the presidential office, the military establishment, and the General Intelligence Service (EGIS) - largely shape national and foreign policies. The ministers are typically tasked with implementing these policies with minimal intervention. However, the new Egyptian government, which took office in early July, represents a significant departure from this norm.
The careful selection of the new government officials appears to be a natural reaction to the rapid resurgence of the Muslim Brotherhood’s influence among grassroots citizens. The heinous terrorist attack committed by Hamas terrorists against Israeli civilians on October 7 created momentum for the Muslim Brotherhood and other radical Islamist groups that enabled them to regain influence over public opinion in Egypt, capitalizing on the mainstream sympathy with the people in Gaza.
It is not a secret that the more influential the Muslim Brotherhood becomes, the greater the risk for El-Sisi's leadership, which is founded on his personal legacy as a fighter for preserving the integrity of the nation-state against political Islamist threats.
The new Egyptian cabinet includes familiar faces who have played commendable roles shoulder-to-shoulder with the military and EGIS in the fight against the Muslim Brotherhood on several fronts in the past decade.
In particular, Ambassador Badr Abdelatty’s name stands out. He seems to be the right person for the right job at the right time. The new foreign minister started his career as a young diplomat in Egypt’s Embassy in Tel Aviv. He enjoys hands-on experience in Egypt-Israel affairs and Egypt’s relations with the Western world. In recent years, Abdelatty served as Egypt’s permanent representative to the EU and NATO and the deputy assistant to the foreign minister on European affairs.
In the aftermath of the military-backed popular uprising against the Muslim Brotherhood rule in 2013, Abdelatty was one of the prominent voices defending the integrity of the Egyptian nation-state against the Muslim Brotherhood's lies in regional and international arenas.
Abdelatty’s position on the Israel-Palestinian conflict seems to be more moderate and reasonable compared to his colleagues. Yet, it is fair to expect that he will align with the overarching Egyptian approach to the Israel-Palestinian conflict and the two-state solution.
Geography is destiny! The myriad of economic and security interdependencies between the neighbors Egypt and Israel make stabilizing their shaking bond of trust in the current fog of war a pressing priority. Egypt and Israel are co-sailors in a sea of geopolitical complexities. They must cooperate in order to survive and thrive.
